To 3/F 法子《实质负利率一定对?》
1. 香港80、90年代,当时供楼利率都在10厘以上,80年代头还出现过20厘。但通胀是否超过20%?否则如何出现「实质负利率」?但香港80、90年代,楼市飞升得很利害啊。所以不能只看「实质负利率」,就预期楼市升跌。
2. 所谓「放在不同时期皆准」。其实通胀率的计算本身就系包括「租金」在内,而其他的成份也「很受楼市和楼市的成交所影响」,所以通胀率的计算是果,楼市是因。如果只回望过去,见到「楼市跌的时期,通胀率都系低,甚至通缩」,就觉得能用「实质负利率」可以预测楼市。这样某程度上「因果互换」了。
I think we need to make apple to apple comparison. I suggest the following two and I use both to monitor property market
Real interest rate (RIR) = Bank interest rate( saving rate) - inflation.
Real mortgage rate (RMR)= Mortgage rate - rental yield.
RIR is the measure of general economy.
RMR is the measure of property yield return. (For property investor)
For individual calculation, I use RMR. RIR and RMR is related.
Bank saving rate increases(money supply decreases), then mortgage rate increases.
Rental yield increase, then inflation should, but not always, increase.
Rental yield is only one factor of inflation. Rent increases, then inflation increases proportionally.
We cannot say inflation increases because of rent increases. (other factor can decreases to cause deflation even if only rent increases)
放在不同时期皆准?
Negative RIR is rare. It can generate positive carry trade in general economy. People can gain even buy toilet paper.
Negative RMR is also rare. I dont have update global data with me now. For example, China RMR should be positive 2 to 4%.
And even in US, RMR should be around 4 - 3 % = 1. Just estimate.
HK RMR = 2.15 - 3.15 = - 1% and with Hibor ( + 0.7 plan) = .9 -3.15 = - 2.25%.
Rental yield in Negative RMR formula is the RESULT of many factors: property supply, GDP, population growth etc.
Mortgage rate in Negative RMR formula is the RESULT of QE, HKD/USD Peg etc. It is a UNIQUE structural condition which is exogenous (外源性)using Prof Yiu's term. And in return, it is the CAUSE of negative RMR.
I would agree that negative RIR would cause property rises in most situations. Proof involves long arguments. So I stop here.