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談判桌上所做的是表演

 

湯文亮博士

紀惠集團行政總裁
2015年7月13日

  星期日晚,有老友打電話給我,問希臘與歐盟的談判沒有進展,擔心希臘被勒令退出歐元區,影響世界經濟,我同佢講有乜好擔心,那是歐盟的家事,美國佬都袖手旁觀,佢巴不得歐盟分解,咁佢就唔使諗計對付歐盟,美國自己當然就唔得,南方聯盟旗幟都要被除下。在歐盟方面,德國婆同其他領袖亦都知道,他們雖然高姿態,但希臘一定不能夠撤出歐元區,齊普拉斯當然知道歐盟領袖心意,所以他非常風騷,如果唔知道內裡的始末因由,一定以為齊普拉斯才是債主,既然早已有結果,我根本懶得去寫評論文章,更加唔需要擔心希臘被勒令撤出歐元區,我老友只不過是杞人憂天而已。

  無論政治,商業,在談判桌上見到的只不過是雙方表演,在桌下的談判才是真實,愈多人參與談判,成功機會愈低,現在歐盟各國都派代表出席,一人一句,令到齊普拉斯都不耐煩,問那班歐盟財長想怎樣,其實,他早已和德國婆講掂數,到最後一刻,齊普拉斯拋出一個令德國婆可以下台方案,反而輪到德國婆講多謝,一定迫其他歐盟成員國接受,跟著大家可以齊齊影相,食飯飲酒,本來餐點,餐飲都是由法國佬負責,但時勢有變,西班牙佬終日無所事事,餐點方面竟然超越法國佬,今次由西班牙佬負責。

  其實,任何談判都是一個give and take 遊戲,就算打敗仗投降都可以有要求,如果衰到不能有要求就叫做無條件投降,日本仔就試過。當大家認為一定不會出現在下方的要求在上方的無條件投降,原來世事真的是無絕對,泛民要求中央政府撤回有關香港普選的人大決定,推翻8.31方案,否則唔傾,如果中央政府真的是這樣做,即是無條件投降,習主席,李總理睬泛民都儍,一於少理,原地踏步就原地踏步,況且受害的是香港人。

 
 
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1. 自我陶醉 2015-07-13 11:06:59
我就冇博士咁樂觀喇, 先看希臘本身, 現在負債超過GDP180%, 失業率28%, 青少年失業率64%, 基本上係不可持續水平, 唔削債還要繼續緊縮, 要番身冇咩可能。 要緊縮又可以再縮幾多? 大家心中有數。

講到削債德國第一個會反對, 其他歐盟國都唔會支持, 有人話希臘咁細要救實救到, 但大家有冇諗過畀希臘極左翼政黨今次過到呢關, 葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利嘅左翼勢力又會點?  削佢債同搬石頭揼自己隻腳有咩分別?

所以我覺得希臘現在只有三條路:
1. 脫離歐元區兼賴債博吓有得削債
2. 齊普拉斯放棄左翼路線
3. 希臘改選, 找聽話溫和派上場, 畀歐盟落台階順勢掃除極左力量

希臘選齊普拉斯上場主要係反緊縮, 佢仲要搞個公投反對緊縮, 除非佢肯認衰兼辭職, 否則要行第二條路機會都好細。最後結論係希臘一係脫歐, 一係仲有排玩。

2. 湯文亮 2015-07-13 15:29:13
各位,
希債危機已解決
3. 打工仔 Andy 2015-07-13 15:45:03
太好了! 
4. 自我陶醉 2015-07-13 16:20:42
博士好嘢!  不過唔知條款係點, 而且所有條款還要等希臘國會通過才可作實, 希望今次唔會再甩轆喇!
5. 新丁 2015-07-13 16:39:45
湯博士估希債危機又估得好準wow
6. 新丁 2015-07-13 16:39:57
湯博士估希債危機又估得好準wow
7. 自我陶醉 2015-07-14 07:14:53
Greece Should Just Quit
18 JUL 13, 2015 5:05 PM EDT
By The Editors ~ Bloomberg

Does Greece belong in the euro area? This fundamental question has divided Europe's governments for months, and still does. The deal just announced only pretends to resolve their disagreement. That's why it won't work.  

Enough is enough: Greece should leave the euro system.

The terms forced on Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras last weekend have little chance of being accepted, carried out and sustained by this Greek government or its successors. Greece's parliament may accept them this week because it thinks the alternative is worse -- and in the short term, that may be true. In the long term, a deal imposed under extreme duress, and bitterly resented by most Greeks, won't succeed.

Greece's Financial Odyssey

Not long ago, a better outcome was imaginable. It would have required compromise on both sides. Greece would have recognized its need to undertake far-reaching economic reforms and to rebuild trust with its creditors. Europe would have responded with fresh, conditional assistance -- sufficient to support the Greek economy through a painful transition.

Such a compact is no longer possible. Trust has collapsed to such a point that Greece is being told it must become an EU colony, not a sovereign state. It is being forced into a deal it will resent for years, and to which it will feel no sense of obligation. Under these circumstances, leaving is the best available choice.

The current deal had to split the difference between Europe's divided leaders. France and others want Greece to stay in the euro system; Germany and its supporters don't. The upshot is that Greece must agree to much stricter terms than were previously offered, pass laws to implement far-reaching policy changes within three days, and place a huge stock of assets marked for privatization under EU supervision; then, and only then, will Germany and other euro zone governments ask their legislators for permission to start discussing a new bailout program.

This approach makes it theoretically possible for Greece to remain in the euro system, but practically extremely difficult. The terms are so severe that they might well be beyond Tsipras's power to deliver. One suspects that for Germany and its supporters, this is the point.

Papering over the disagreement between those who want Greece to remain in the euro zone and those who don't -- hence failing to decide the very purpose of the strategy -- further prolongs the agony and adds to the costs. The risk that it will poison the whole European project, if it hasn't already, grows by the day.

Given Tsipras's history of provocation and evasion, and Greece's history of fiscal fraud and incompetence, his belated yes last week to the creditors' expired offer wasn't enough by itself. It wasn't unreasonable of the creditors to ask for trust-building measures -- such as passing a major piece of legislation (on value-added tax, say) at once as a token of good faith.

But demanding instant passage of an enormous raft of measures, many of them only loosely connected to fiscal stability, as the price for the possibility of talks on a new program, gives every appearance of being calculated to humiliate -- which is certainly how it will be seen in Greece.

The text of the agreement starts by affirming that, when it comes to policy commitments, "ownership by the Greek authorities is key." Indeed it is. Ultimately, that's why this deal cannot work.

Whatever happens in the next few weeks, Greece may still end up leaving the euro system. Exit now will be painful, to be sure. The risks to the rest of Europe aren't small. But Greece will at least be in command of its own future, with nobody else to blame for its setbacks. The sooner that happens, the better.

8. 自我陶醉 2015-07-14 07:36:33
希歐協議實雙輸希債炸彈未除
香港經濟日報 社評

歐盟與希臘就債務問題達協議,在德國鐵腕下,希臘終被迫簽城下之盟,要加力緊縮、變賣資產,卻換不來削債。惟歐盟企硬亦令歐元區裂痕進一步加深,演成希臘與歐盟雙輸結局。

希臘撒賴惹禍自招德國重懲
希債危機昨現突破, 歐盟將透過歐洲穩定機制(ESM)向希臘提供信貸度過難關,貸款金額達860億歐元,遠高於國基組織(IMF)估算的500億歐元資金需求。惟對希臘而言,有關協議不但並非勝利,更近乎屈辱。

希臘總理齊普拉斯曾揚言,會要求歐盟等債權人削減希臘債務三成,並圖藉公投迫歐盟就範,但公投反惹最大債主德國擺出不惜踢走希臘的強硬態度,齊普拉斯不但未能迫歐盟削債,反須大力加稅、削福利,甚至要變賣國有資產,籌500億歐元以抵債自救。希臘漫天索價的結果,是輸得更慘。

希臘今次玩火燒身,眼前考驗將是如此「喪權辱國」的救助方案,能否在周三死綫前獲國會通過。惟齊普拉斯的反撙節期票「彈票」收場,卻可能惹左翼政府內部更大反彈與逼宮,亦可能惹怒希臘民眾上街反對方案,內外交煎,甚或造成提前大選,釀希臘政治劇震。

就算希臘能捱過政治難關,通過援助方案,經濟難關仍未見出路。因援助方案僅是助希臘借新債冚舊債,希臘仍被迫加力撙節,恐重蹈過去五年財政愈削、經濟愈縮的惡性循環,國內生產總值已萎縮近四分一的希臘,經濟恐未見底,要解決重債勢緣木求魚。

希臘雖是大輸家,卻不代表歐盟就是贏家,實是希臘與歐盟的雙輸結局。德國欲借希臘殺雞儆猴,警示其他歐豬國,惟客觀上恐惹反效果。

其一,此將加劇希臘國民對歐元區的離心,若希債問題再現,自感受盡歐盟「欺凌」的希臘人很可能拉倒求解脫,即時引爆脫歐危機。

其二,德國霸氣凌人的態度,恐更增其他歐洲國家的激進聲音,如今年底將有選舉的歐豬國西班牙與葡萄牙,以至明年或舉行脫歐公投的英國,主張脫歐的疑歐派聲勢或大漲。

歐盟裂痕更深自埋脫歐後患

衝擊更大的是,今次希債談判,再度暴露歐盟團結只是光說不練,強國如德國等得享歐洲一體化最大利益,弱國經濟水深火熱卻苦無出路,加深歐盟內部裂痕,長遠損害國際市場對歐盟以至歐元的信心。

此正預視,除非歐盟能痛定思痛,在脅迫希臘狠削赤之餘,亦力助希臘重振經濟翻身,否則希債危機翻發僅時間問題,屆時勢點燃各方的新仇舊恨,脫歐震盪更難免。
9. 引刀一快 2015-07-14 13:43:42
有借無還兼要享受,睇見呢種人踩嘢,唔駛可憐佢。
10. 珍惜香港 2015-07-14 15:02:56
珍惜香港

博士話,希債危機已經解決,呢一點,我唔認同。

我反而傾向自醉兄嘅睇法,希臘經濟,喺超級唔平衡。國民生活水平,同佢地嘅整體生產力,相距太遠,呢個問題,一日唔解決,希債危機,一日都冇可能解決。

無可否認,今次談判桌上,的確喺達成咗協議嘅。不過,我睇評論,從來唔會只睇結果;預測嘅理據,合唔合乎現實,先至喺最重要。好明顯,德國婆真喺企硬,齊普拉斯莫講話一啲都唔風騷,佢响短時間之內,已經投咗降,仲乜都應承哂添!

希臘債務,累積達三千幾億歐元。早前我話,借錢唔還,分分鐘搞到要還資源。你獅子口玩削債三成咁串,呢鋪真喺削條毛啦!仲要將五百億歐元希臘國產供出嚟還債,唔知算唔算偷雞唔到蝕渣米?無抵押債仔,真喺大哂咩?

或者大家可以睇下會議前,同會議後,當中發生過乜事;其實,齊普拉斯已經露底

當日公投,阿齊大力呼籲國民,一定要反對債權人方案,唔喺嘅話就辭職喎!唔好俾我睇穿,果個公投結果,根本就唔喺佢想要嘅。只要債權人方案勝出,佢就真喺可以好風騷咁,以民族英雄嘅姿態落台,反正結果喺點,班國民都唔使旨意有好日子過啦,到民怨再沸騰,咪捲土重來囉!政治呢味嘢,就喺咁。

依家好衰唔衰,班國民竟然咁聽話。講真,阿齊邊有咁嘅 GUTS,俾希臘退出歐元區?邊個做總理,都唔願意充當呢隻劊子手啦!民族英雄?千古罪人就有你份!

阿齊呢鋪真喺輸得好慘,仲露哂底,隨時面對政變嘅危機。要贏,就必須發動清除異已嘅鬥爭,將希臘呢個民主發源地,推番去獨裁,喺唔喺好諷刺?輸咗呢?兩面不是人,永不翻身囉!

唉!民主何價

呢次希債危機,會唔會真喺得到解決?我當然唔會預測埋啲咁嘢。近呢半年,都不時有人 SELL 歐債、歐洲基金之類,話好抵喎!我一向唔鍾意借錢俾人燒,更加唔鍾意借錢俾人浪費資源

都喺果句,成三千幾億歐元,總要搵人填嘅,問題喺,有冇你份
11. 自我陶醉 2015-07-14 16:57:28
引刀兄, 你搞錯喇, 我唔係可憐佢, 只係驚佢累街坊啫!

其實賣資產佢哋之前都諗過, 齊普拉斯上一手計埋所有家檔當時只賣到350億歐羅, 依家經濟仲差咗, 要籌500億, 真係橫又死, 掂又死, 只係唔知點死?  過到國會先算喇!
12. 引刀一快 2015-07-14 20:06:07
自我陶醉兄

睇到呢度,我覺得世事真係妙,之前大家仲估緊有冇黑天鵝,今次希臘中國兩邊都風起雲湧,唔知會唔會搞D出人意表嘅嘢呢?

13. 自我陶醉 2015-07-15 08:29:26
引刀兄, 

今年中的三隻黑天鵝包括: 希臘違約、中國引發全球衰退、美國進入加息週期。 

這三隻天鵝中, 當然係你講嘅中國問題最大殺傷力, 像希臘這樣一個小國, 本身破產的實際金融風險其實不大, 現在只是以擔心歐元區解體作藉口炒作, 睇佢畀德國玩到鷄毛鴨血, 我估都唔會有其他人再敢玩嘢喇。至於美股債這幾年的泡沫, 就是等待一少點火來引爆, 那點火是什麼真係冇人知喇!  
14. 引刀一快 2015-07-15 10:01:38
自我陶醉兄

呢鋪大陸有變數,雖然主走向係非常唔好,但係借今次將銀行個小河招安,肖小姐開番攤老公打殘,直接喺“龍成邦”手上拉走兩個最有份量嘅地盤,情況比之前稍稍樂觀咗。