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Real Estate Situation

The full flow customs clearance stimulates property market rebound

 

Damon Ho

14th January 2023

Since January 8th, China, Hong Kong, and Macau have adopted the full flow customs clearance policies. Among of them, the arrival tourists to Macau have rebounded sharply. The daily tourists have risen to forty thousand. Compared with Hong Kong, its daily tourists are only about eight thousand. In terms of tourists, Macau has already lead Hong Kong by a large margin. The influx of substantial number of tourists boosts up Macau’s economies at once. The revenues of retailing, food & beverage industry and casinos have been rebounding immensely, and the rent of shops also starts to bounce back.

The entry number of mainland tourists to Hong Kong is comparatively low. In fact, the city hub of Hong Kong is much larger than Macau, so the public of Hong Kong does not feel the obvious benefits of their consumption power to the retail industry. On the contrary, economic activities’ momentum has been improving in Macau, and it launches further promotion by offering a bonus free return ticket to anyone for buying a ferry ticket to Macau. Hong Kong may also consider offering exclusive discounts to tourists to stimulate their consumption in Hong Kong.

During the non-public holiday in Macau, the mainland tourists’ consumption has been increasing the gambling industries’ revenues. If Hong Kong can attract more than fifty thousand mainland tourists per day, the business sentiment of Hong Kong will turn better significantly.

Hong Kong is moving back to normal. Although the mainland tourists may not buy the local properties at once, but their reappearance in Hong Kong has improved the business atmosphere. However, the local users are aware this situation and they start to speed up the pace of entering the market. The fundamental environment has changed better, and it will nourish the property market to rebound in later date.

In the last three year, the blockade and the strict pandemic prevention policies have done impacts to China and Hong Kong. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve is still to keep the hike interest rate policy. Therefore, the rebound of the property market in this year will not be too strong and dramatic.

The property market has touched the lowest point and the self-users can consider buying the proper units which they can afford. If the investors find the premises which are below the fair price, they should not miss these opportunities either.

 
 
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1. Hong Kong office boosted by China reopening 2023-01-14 14:20:58

Hong Kong’s office sector could be boosted by the reopening of China, Colliers reported. 

In the fourth quarter of 2022, Colliers found that the leasing market was muted, resulting in a small net take-up. 

This is despite a 353,000 sq. ft. (32,800 sqm), net take up, representing the first year with positive net absorption since 2019.

“The reopening of China’s borders will be a game-changer for the sector. As business travel resumes across borders, we expect more viewings and leasing enquiries which will likely strengthen office rent, with overall Grade A office rent estimated to increase moderately by 3% year-on-year,” Fiona Ngan, Head of Office Services at Colliers Hong Kong, said.

2. 去年賣地收益大跌五成二 2023-01-14 18:36:22

Public revenue from land sales is expected to slump by 52 percent to HK$87 billion this financial year from HK$183 billion the previous year.

The administration has so far arranged for 13 sites to be sold off: eight residential, three commercial, one industrial and one logistics.

Land prices have been declining.

3. Interest rate hike cycle dims market 2023-01-15 11:22:09

The interest rate hike cycle is expected to persist in early 2023 and will “cast a shadow” over Hong Kong’s mass residential market despite the reopening of the border with China, Colliers said.

In a report, the firm noted that the total residential transaction volumes fell to the lowest level since 1997, declining by 39.4% year-on-year to 45,050, excluding public housing, citing data from the Land Registry.

4. Hk fiscal deficit 108b 22 to 23 2023-01-16 12:17:20

The Hong Kong government is expected to reach a consolidated budget deficit of $109b for the fiscal year 2022/23, with the revenue project at $681b and expenditure at $790b, according to PwC.

In a statement, PwC said total revenues from profits tax and salaries tax will stand at $234.8b, lower than the government’s estimate of $247.2b. Hong Kong is also expected to generate $95b from stamp duty, whilst land sales revenue is seen to reach around $80b or 33% lower than the original estimate of $120b.

5. Pcw quited auditing job in Evergrande Group 2023-01-17 10:39:35

Real estate firm, China Evergrande Group, revealed that its auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), has quit from their post following disagreements on timetable and auditing of financial statements for 2021.

The resignation was effective 16 January 2023, the real estate company said.

According to the group, it had issues on timetable and scope of work in China Evergrande Group’s debt restructuring and auditing of their financial statements for 2021. 

6. Job postings for tourism increasing 2023-01-18 11:02:29

Hong Kong’s loosened quarantine requirements for visitors led to increase of recruitment for front-line service sectors and tourism-related industries.

JobsDB by SEEK said in its study that job postings for tourism and travel agencies in 2022 went up 46% year-on-year, which more than doubled since 2020. Following this is theaviation industry, which recorded a 36% growth in job advertisements YoY, up 61.1% from 2020.

Hospitality and hotel sector revived as recruitment numbers went up 28% or a 61.1% surge from 2020 job postings.