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Property News Weekly Digest
2018/12/8
〈The Standard, December 6, 2018〉Hong Kong's 'God of Property' predicted that prices could slump by up to 30 per cent next year in the face of a deteriorating economy, as the one-month HIBOR soared to above 2 percent.

Justin Chiu Kwok-hung, the executive director of CK Asset (1113), said property prices in general are likely to fall between 10 and 20 per cent while prices of nano flats in far-flung districts could plunge by as much as 30 per cent.

He said around 4,000 to 5,000 nano flats are expected to go on the market over the next few years, and this would lead to a fall in their prices.

Chiu was elaborating on an earlier comment he made at a dinner event on Tuesday, when he said that property prices could fall by 25 to 30 percent.

He said property prices are high at present and while the ongoing Sino-US trade war is affecting Hong Kong's economy, the burden on mortgage holders will become heavier with the US Federal Reserve poised to increase interest rates further.

Chiu also believed that China emerged victorious from the meeting between US President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, as Beijing had already decided to boost agricultural imports a few months before the talks, and it also won a 90-day reprieve, while America did not win anything of significance.

Chiu revealed that CK Asset's property sales reached a hefty HK$50 billion in 2017, while the company will this year enjoy a HK$40.2 billion windfall from last November's sale of The Center, a 73-story tower, to a consortium of the city's investors and buyers from the mainland.

CK Asset sold nearly 500 homes worth a total of HK$13.5 billion this year. Both numbers were less than those of competitors Sun Hung Kai Property, Henderson Land, New World Development and Wheelock Property.

〈Asian Post, December 6, 2018〉Micro-flats, once all the rage in Hong Kong because of their affordability, would bear the brunt of the property price slump, said an executive at CK Asset Holdings, one of the city's biggest developers.

Executive director Justin Chiu Kwok-hung forecast prices for tiny flats could tumble as much as 30 per cent next year as demand dries up.

Chiu said "in his personal view" the prices of such flats, sized at less than 200 sq ft - smaller than a car parking space - would suffer most because the segment was saturated, with more than 10,000 flats "digested", or sold.

In addition to flats for sale next year, Chiu said there could be 20,000 "shoebox-sized" flats weighing on prices.

Across the broader residential market, prices would fall 10 to 20 per cent depending on location and supply, he said, which made him the most bearish executive of a leading developer to date.

Rivals such as Chinachem Group had predicted a fall of less than 10 per cent, and Sun Hung Kai Properties said buying sentiment would pick up next year.

"The US-China trade war will not be settled in the short term and the Hong Kong property market will be affected," Chiu said.

Prices of secondary-market homes saw a sharper decline in October as sentiment was hurt by the US-China trade war, a slump in the stock markets and an uptrend in interest rates.

〈Asian Post, December 5, 2018〉Overseas investors are taking an increasingly large share of mainland commercial property deals as local players, traditionally the biggest buyers, find their activities crimped by the government's credit tightening policy.

Foreign buyers spent more than 23 billion yuan (HK$26 billion) on at least five publicly announced commercial property deals in the past three weeks, according to figures from brokers.

"Local competitors' hands are tied by tight financing conditions, stricter approval [processes] and property market curbs, while overseas investors have an edge, such as access to international funds and shorter procedures," said Grant Ji, head of capital markets for CBRE North China.

The central government has moved to tighten financing for property developers in recent months, concerned over excessive debt in the sector.

Ji said that in the case of Beijing, the share of commercial deals for overseas investors could rise to 40 per cent for 2018, an unprecedented level for the city.

In a deal Ji helped close last week, a shopping centre worth 2.56 billion yuan in Beijing's Tongzhou district was sold to Hong Kong-based Link Reit.

The transaction, the largest for a single retail asset in Beijing this year, took just five months, unlike the nine to 15 months such a deal typically requires in the city.

In Shanghai, meanwhile, data from Cushman & Wakefield showed the share of commercial property deals for overseas investors, mainly private equity firms from the United States and Hong Kong, surged to 66.5 per cent in the third quarter, its highest level since 2016.

〈The Standard, December 4, 2018〉Prices of grade A offices and prime street shops will drop 5 per cent as the trade war, falling stock markets and rising rates bite, according to Savills

The sale prices of offices in Hong Kong will fall next year as the US-China trade war, stock market volatility and rising interest rates take a toll on the sector, according to consultancy Savills.

Prices of grade A offices and prime street shops will drop 5 per cent, while home prices will see a much larger decline of up to 10 per cent, it said.

Prices of all other categories, such as Central grade A offices, town houses and industrial units may see no growth.

"Record-high prices have dented Hong Kong's appeal for investors," Savills said.Prices of grade A offices rose 16.6 per cent from December last year to September this year, with space in Central costing HK$63,610 per square foot in September. If prices drop, it would be the first time since December last year, according to the Rating and Valuation Department.

Simon Smith, head of research at Savills, said yesterday that the property sector had seen a slowdown in price growth "due to interest rate increases and the recent stock market volatility".

Stock market corrections usually heralded property market corrections three to six months later, Savills said, adding that the volatility and muted business confidence had caused occupiers to rein in expansion plans and wait for a clearer picture.

〈China Daily, December 3, 2018〉Shanghai has replaced Hong Kong as the most expensive place in Asia for a basket of luxury goods and services, according to Bank Julius Baer's annual Wealth Report Asia.

In fact, the SAR is now just the third most expensive city behind Singapore, which goes to second on the strength of its dollar.

The Julius Baer Lifestyle Index cost surged 2.91 percent year-on-year in US dollar terms - the highest growth since the listing was launched eight years ago.

It defines high-net-worth individuals as someone with at least US$1 million (HK$7.8 million) to invest. Property that is a main residence does not count.

In Hong Kong, the basket of goods and services rose by 2.2 percent.The SAR remains the most expensive city in Asia for buying residential property or taking a business-class flight. But items such as skin creams, ladies shoes and men's suits are relatively inexpensive. Shanghai became far more pricey when buying property, hiring a lawyer or buying watches, jewelry and handbags.

Kuala Lumpur remained the least expensive city in Asia. It is certainly the best place to pick up a piano, smoke cigars and to check into a hotel suite.

Other findings included women now accounting for half of Chinese luxury spending. And the purchasing power of women across Asia is increasing as more females take senior management positions and become more financially savvy.